• 藍色版面
  • 綠色版面
  • 橘色版面
  • 粉紅色版面
  • 棕色版面
帳號:guest(120.119.126.29)          離開系統
字體大小: 字級放大   字級縮小   預設字形  

詳目顯示

研究生: 朱方萍
研究生(外文): chufanping
論文名稱: 投資行為與決策因素對台股投資績效影響之研究
論文名稱(外文): A Study on the Influence of Investment Behavior and Decision Making Factors on Investment Performance
指導教授: 陳清燿
學位類別: 碩士
校院名稱: 樹德科技大學
系所名稱: 經營管理研究所
論文出版年: 2009
畢業學年度: 97
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 98
中文關鍵詞: 投資者投資行為決策因素投資績效
外文關鍵詞: InvestorInvestment BehaviorDecision MakingInvestment Performance
相關次數:
  • 被引用:0
  • 點閱:212
  • 評分:*****
  • 下載:90
  • 書目收藏:0
股市是經濟的櫥窗,也是經濟景氣的領先指標,其反映了經濟未來所面對的成長與衰退。台灣股票市場經歷了多次的金融風暴,2007年之「次級房貸」風暴,至今雷曼兄弟投資銀行破產風暴之影響仍難以評估更不知如何收拾,台灣的金融市場正面臨逐步開放與國際市場接軌,難免不受此風暴之影響。台股在數月中跌掉了五千多點,目前的股價指數為六千多點。投資者也在此次金融海嘯中財富大幅縮水,而散戶遭融資斷頭的賣壓,如排山倒海,更加造成台股的重挫。投資者為能在資本市場獲利,一定要知道影響台股投資績效的因素何在?
本研究主要目的乃在探討投資行為與決策因素對台股投資績效影響之研究,以台灣證券市場之投資者為研究對象,使用便利抽樣法進行施測,透過以敍述統計之次數分配表檢定與單因子變異數分析(one-way ANOVA)來檢驗投資者之背景變項,在投資行為與決策因素上是否有顯著差異。運用Pearson積差相關分析來檢定各變項之間是否顯著性相關,包括驗證投資者的投資行為與決策因素對台股投資績效之變項有無顯著相關性。採用最適尺度迴歸分析來檢驗投資行為與決策因素對台股投資績效對投資績效評估成效的預測,並可解釋變項之間的關係。
本研究結果發現:(1)投資者之背景變項在市場選擇之自變數資產狀況有顯著差異。(2)投資者之背景變項在決策因素之自變數個人年齡、學歷、職務、收入、平均每季投資金額、資產狀況在基本面因素有顯著差異。(3)投資者之背景變項之自變數個人年齡、平均每季投資金額、資產狀況在心理面因素有顯著差異。(4)投資者之背景變項之依變數平均每季投資金額、資產狀況在總體經濟因素有顯著差異。(5)投資者的在投資行為之自變數策略選擇有顯著相關。因此,投資者在空頭市場無論在投資行為與決策因素之變項,保有現金部位及嚴設停損才能持盈保泰。
The stock market is a leading indicator that shows the economy’s future growth or recession. Over the years, Taiwan’s stock market has gone through many times financial crises, including the “Subprime Mortgage” crisis in 2007. Estimating effects of the Lehman Brothers going bankrupt is not easy even today, not to mention try cleaning the mess up. As Taiwan’s financial market is gradually opening up and falling in line with the world, it is more vulnerable, and the crises caused Taiwan’s stock index to plummet over 5000 points in a few months; the stock index is currently at a level above 6000 points. Left with little wealth, individual investors were pressured to liquidate stocks, aggravate the situation even more. In order to make a profit in the capital market, investors must know which factors influence on their investment performance.
The purpose of this study is to explore the influence of investment behavior and the factors of decision making on investment performance. Research subjects are randomly sampled investors from Taiwan’s stock market; the frequency distribution table of descriptive statistics and one-way ANOVA were used to examine background variables of investors and whether they reached the significant level in investment behavior and decision making. Pearson product-moment correlation was used to analyze whether variables were significantly related, including the relation among investment behavior, the factors of decision making and investment performance variables. Optimal scaling regression analysis was adopted to examine anticipations of investment performance based on different investment behavior and the factors of decision making , it was also used to explain the relation between different variables.
Research findings are as follows: (1) In investor’s background variables of financial condition, the independent variable reached level of significance in market selection. (2) In investor’s background independent variables, age, education, position, income, average investment amount per quarter and financial condition reached level of significance in decision making. (3) In investor’s background variables, the independent variables age, average investment amount per quarter and financial condition reached the significance level in the mental aspect. (4) In investor’s background variables, the independent variables average investment amount per quarter and financial condition reached level of significance in macro economics. (5) In investor’s investment behavior, the independent variable strategy selection reached level of significance. Therefore, among all investment behavior and decision making variables, maintaining cash position and setting strict stop loss points are the key to making a profit in a bear market.
中文摘要  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------  i
英文摘要  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------  iii
謝誌  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------  v
目錄  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------  vi
表目錄  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------  ix
圖目錄  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------  xi
第一章  緒論------------------------------------------------------------------------  1
1.1  研究背景與動機---------------------------------------------------------  1
1.2  研究目的------------------------------------------------------------------  3
1.3  本研究之流程圖示------------------------------------------------------  4
第二章  文獻探討------------------------------------------------------------------  5
2.1  投資者之相關文獻------------------------------------------------------  5
2.1.1  投資者之定義------------------------------------------------------------  5
2.1.2  散戶------------------------------------------------------------------------  5
2.1.3  法人------------------------------------------------------------------------  7
2.1.4  中實戶---------------------------------------------------------------------  15
2.2  投資行為之相關文獻---------------------------------------------------  16
2.2.1  投資行為之定義---------------------------------------------------------  16
2.2.2  市場選擇------------------------------------------------------------------  18
2.2.3  策略選擇------------------------------------------------------------------  18
2.3  投資決策因素之相關文獻---------------------------------------------  20
2.3.1  投資決策之定義---------------------------------------------------------  20
2.3.2  基本面因素之定義------------------------------------------------------  21
2.3.3  技術面因素之定義------------------------------------------------------  27
2.3.4  心理面因素之定義------------------------------------------------------  31
2.3.5  總體經濟因素之定義---------------------------------------------------  34
2.4  投資績效之相關文獻---------------------------------------------------  36
2.4.1  績效之定義---------------------------------------------------------------  36
第三章  研究設計與方法---------------------------------------------------------  41
3.1  研究架構------------------------------------------------------------------  41
3.2  研究對象及問卷設計---------------------------------------------------  43
3.3  統計分析方法------------------------------------------------------------  44
第四章  研究結果與分析---------------------------------------------------------  46
4.1  敘述性統計分析---------------------------------------------------------  46
4.2  投資者之背景變項無顯著差異之假設檢定------------------------  52
4.3  皮爾遜積差相關無顯著相關之假設檢定---------------------------  60
4.4  迴歸分析------------------------------------------------------------------  64
第五章  結論與建議---------------------------------------------------------------  69
5.1  研究結論------------------------------------------------------------------  69
5.2  研究貢獻------------------------------------------------------------------  70
5.3  管理意涵------------------------------------------------------------------  71
參考文獻  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------  72
中文部分  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------  72
英文部分  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------  76
附錄一  基本面之財務比率與技術面之技術指標---------------------------  80
附錄二  本研究問卷---------------------------------------------------------------  93
1.公開資訊觀測站,「上市上櫃公司基本資料」,http://newmops.tse.com.tw/,2006年6月。
2.行政院經濟建設委員會,「景氣對策信號」,http://www.cepd.gov.tw/,2006年6月。
3.台灣證券交易所網站,「台灣證券交易法」,http://www.tse.com.tw/,2009年6月。
4.行政院金融督管理委員會-證期局,http://www.sfb.gov.tw/,2009年6月。
5.台灣經濟新報網站,http://www.tej.com.tw/,2000年3月。
6.余宗達(1998),「外國專業投資機構與指標性自營商於國內股市之定位」,私立淡江大學國貿易學研究所碩士論文。
7.李志柔(1996),「台灣股市自營商鉅額交易對股票報酬率之影響」,國立中興大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
8.李詩文(1996),「股市外資,自營商與基金互動關係-狀態空間模型應用之實證研究」,國立中興大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
9.杜金龍(1996)(1999),「基本分析-在台灣股市應用的訣竅」,台北市:金錢文化出版。
10.杜金龍(2005),「技術分析入門」,台北市:財訊出版。
11.杜金龍(2007),「投資學下冊」,台北市:財訊出版。
12.林煜宗(1988),修訂4版。「現代投資學理論、制度與實證」。
13.姚復章(1997),「融券餘額與超額報酬關係之研究」,國立中正大學國際經
濟學研究所碩士論文。
14.財團法人中華民國證券暨期貨市場發展基金會(1999)。
15.孫穎慶(1999),「融資、融券與股票市場關聯性探討」,私立逢甲大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。
16.張昭彬(1991),「股價、物價、貨幣供給因果關係分析」,私立淡江大學金融研究所碩士論文。
17.張皇輝(1995),「外資與自營商的買賣策略對台灣股市報酬率與波動性影響之研究」,國立台灣大學商學研究所碩士論文。
18.張嘉宏(1995),「台灣股票市場加權股價指數與融資餘額、融券餘額之關係研究」,私立東海大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
19.陳應慶(2004),「應用技術分析指標於台灣股票市場加權指數買進時機切入之實證研究-以RSI、MACD及DIF為技術指標」,私立佛光人文社會學院管理學研究所碩士論文。
20.陸劍清、馬勝祥、彭賀、李同慶編著(2002),「投資心理學」,揚智文化事業。
21.黃于珍(1999),「外資交易行為對台灣股市之影響」,私立輔仁大學金融研究所碩士論文。
22.黃志祥(2007),「運用層級分析法探討股票投資決策因素」,國立高雄應用科技大學工業工程與管理系碩士論文。
23.黃啟瑞(1996),「共同基金-行銷策略之研究」,國立政治大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
24.楊啟宏(1998),「外資買賣超資訊對個股股價之影響-台灣股票市場之實證研究」,國立台灣大學財務金融學研究所碩士論文。
25.葉日武(2000),「現代投資學-原理、技巧與應用」,台北縣三重市:前程企業管理有限公司。
26.楊淑玲(1992),「台灣分類股價、物價、貨幣供給之因果關係分析」,私立淡江大學金融研究所碩士論文。
27.廖世魁(1996),「國內、外法人機構對國內股市影響效果之探討」,私立淡江大學管理科學研究所碩士論文。
28.彭毓珍(2003),「台灣股票與指數期貨市場投資者行為之研究」,國立成功大學管理學院碩士論文。
29.劉其昌(1990),「投資學」,劉其昌(自版)。
30.劉平文(1993),經營分析與企業診斷-企業經營系統觀,華泰出版社,頁350。
31.錢友琪(1993),「證券信用交易餘額與股價因果關係-台灣地區之實證研究」,私立淡江大學財務金融學研究所碩士論文。
32.繆燕鴦(2002),「亞太地區貨幣政策與股市報酬之關聯性分析-以向量自我迴歸及共整合模型為例」,國立中原大學企業管理學院碩士論文。
33.魏志耀(1996),「台灣地區貨幣政策指標之實證研究-共整合與結構化向量自迴歸之應用」,私立淡江大學金融研究所碩士論文。
34.證券交易法,證期局網站,台灣證券交易所網站。
35.蘇鵲翎(2000),「散戶與法人投資行為對股票報酬率與週轉率影響之探討-以台灣上 市電子股為例」,國立台灣大學財務金融學研究所碩士論文。
36.龔怡霖(2000),「行為財務學文獻回顧與未來發展」,國立政治大學財務管理研究所碩士論文。
1.Abdullah Dewan A.,(1998), ”Money Growth Variavility and Stock Returns: An Innovations Accounting Analysis”, International Economic Journal 12(4), 89-104.
2.A.D.Chanlder(1962),Jr., ”Strategy and Structure Cambridge”, Mass: M.I.T.
3.Abarbanell, J.S., &Bushee, B.J.(1997), ”Fundamental analysis, future earnings and stock prices.Journal of Accounting Research”, Vol35, Spring(1), pp1-25.
4.Aggarwal, R.,(1981),”Exchange Rate and Stock Prices: A Study of the U.S.Capital Markets under Floating Exchange Rates”, Akron Business and Economic Review, Vol, 20, 7-12.
5.Ajsyi Richard A.and Mbodja Mougoue,(1996), ”On the Dynamic Relation Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates”, The Journal of Financial Research 19, 193-207.
6.American Accounting Association (1966) “Committee to prepare a statement of basicaccounting theory, a statement of basic accounting theory ”Evanston, Ill.: AAA, 1.
7.Amling,Frederick,Investment N.J:Prentice Hall,(1988):An Introduction to Analysis and Management, Englewood Cliffs.
8.Asquith, P.and L.K. Meulbroek(1995),”An Empirical Investigtion of Shot Interest”, M.I.T. Sloan School of Management and Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration, Memeo, Sept., pp 1-27.
9.Barber, B.M.and T.Odean, (2003), ”All that Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors, ”Working paper, Graduate School of Management, University of California, Davis.
10.Barberis, Nicholas, Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishny(1988), “A model of investor sentiment”, Journal of Financial Economics49, pp. 307 - 343.
11.Barney, Firm Resources and Sustained Competitive Advantage, Jouranl of
Management,Vol.17,(1991)
12.Culters, D.M., Poterba,M.J.and Lawrence, H.S.(1989)What Move Stock Price The Journal of Portfolio Management 15.
13.Debondt,Werner F.M.(1993)”Betting on trends:Intuitive Forecasts of Financial Risk and Return, ”International Journal of Forecasting 9, PP.355-371.
14.Drucker(1954), “The Practice of Management”, New York: Harper.
15.Fama, E.F.(1970) Efficient capital markets:a review of theory and empirical work.Journal of Finance, 25, 383-417.
16.Frank, K.R.(1985) Investment analysis and portfolio management.(2nd ed.). NewYork: Dryden Press.
17.Graham, B.(1985).Intelligent investor (4th ed.) New York: Harper & Row.Graham, B., &David, L.D.(1998) (5th ed.) Security analysis.Ontario: McGraw-Hill Trade.
18.H.I.(1965)Anoff, Corporate Strategy New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co.
19.Hirshleifer, David (2001) “Investor psychology and asset pricing, ”Journal of Finance Forthcoming.
20.Hong, Harrison, and Jeremy C.Stein, (1999), “A unified theory of underreaction,momentum trading and overreaction in asset markets”, Journal of Finance54, pp.2143-2184.
21.Huang, Roger D., Masulis, Ronald W, and Stoll, Hans R(1996), ”Energy Stocks and Financial Markets, ”The Journal of Futures Markets 16(1), pp1-27.
22.Hyuk Choe, Bong-Chan Kho, and Rene M.Stulz, ”Do foreign investors destabilize stock markets?The Korean experience in(1997)”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol.54, (1999), pp.227 - 264.
23.John, B.W.(2001) The theory of investment value (5th ed.) New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.
24.Kahneman, Daniel, Tversky, Amos,(1979)”Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk, ”Econometrica Vol.47, March, PP.263 - 291.
25.Kahneman, Daniel, and Mark W.Riepe(1998), “Aspects of investorpsychology,” Journal of Portfolio Management (summer), 52-65.
26.Keynes, J.M.(1936), ”The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money, ”Chapter, London: Macmillan.
27.Levy, R.A.(1966) ,“Conceptual Foundation of Technical Analysis” Financial Analysis Journal: 84-85.
28.Levy, Robert A.(1996),“An Evaluation of Selected Applications of Stock MarketTiming Techniques Trading Tactics and Trend Analysis, Unpublished ph.D Dissertation, the American University.
29.Markowitz, Harry, (1952)”The Utility of Wealth, ”Journal of Political Economy, LX. February - December, PP.151 - 58.
30.O’connor, M.C.(1973) On the usefulness of financial ratios to investors in commonstock. The Accounting Review, 48(4), 239 - 352.
31.Odean, Terrance and Brad M.Barber,(2001),”Boys Will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence and Common Stock Investment,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.116, No.1, PP.261 - 292.
32.Odean, Robert A.,(1998)”Behavioral Finance and Its Implications for Stock-Price Volataility, ”Financial Analysis Journal March/April, PP.10 - 18.
33.Ou, J.A., &Penman, S.H.(1989) Financial statement analysis and the prediction ofstock return. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 11(4), 295 - 329.
34.Ou, J.A.and Penman, S.H.(1989), ”Financial Statement Analysis and the Prediction of tock Returns”, Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol. 12, pp.295 - 329.
35.Rajan, R.and H.Servaes (1996) Analyst following of initial public offerings, ”Mimeo, University of Chicago.
36.Richard, B.L.(1999) Select winning stocks using financial statements:get inside acompany's financial,use the pro's favorite selection tools, determine key investment.Chicago: Dearborn Trade.
37.Robert, D.E., &John, M.(1966) Technical analysis of stock trends (5th ed.) Boston Mass: John Magee Inc.
38.Shleifer, A.(2000) Inefficient Markets:An Introduction To Behavioral Finance, Oxford University Press.
39.Shefrin, H.(2000) Beyond Greed And Fear, Boston, MA: Harvard Business
School Press.
40.Shefrin, H.and Meir Statman (2000) , “Behavioral portfolio theory,”
unpublished paper,  Santa Clara University.
41.Shefrin, Hersh Eds, (2001)Behavioral Finance, Vol.1-3, Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc.
42.Shiller, R.J.(1998), “human behavior and the efficiency of the financial
System, ”in J.Taylor, and M.Woodford, ed.: Handbook of Macroeconomics.
43.Sharpe, W. F. (1964), “Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk, ” Journal of Finance, Vol. 19,  pp. 425 - 442.
44.Slovic, Paul,(1972)”Psychological Study of Human Judgment: Implications for Investment Decision Making, ”Journal of Finance, 27 (4), Septemberem, PP.779 - 799.
45.Statman, Meir(1999),”Behavioral Finance: Past Battles and Future Engagements, ”Financial Analysis Journal, November/December1999.
46.William, L., Russell, P., &James, M.R(2002)Forecasting the NYSE compositeindex with technical analysis, pattern recognizer,neural network, and geneticalgorithm:a case study in romantic decision support.Decision Support Systems, 32(4), 361 - 377.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
無相關期刊
 
* *