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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ir.lib.stu.edu.tw:80/ir/handle/310903100/494

Title: 台灣地區金融機構匯率趨勢與匯率目標區匯率決定之驗證
Verifications about Exchange Rate Trends of Financial Institutions and the Exchange Rate Target
Authors: 林佳慧
Chin-Hui Lin
Contributors: 陳麗惠
Li-Hui Chen
經營管理研究所
Keywords: 匯率目標區;敘述統計;假設檢定;經濟成長
Exchange Rate Zones;Descriptive Statistics;Hypothesis Testing;Economic Growth
Date: 2006
Issue Date: 2011-05-23 13:40:49 (UTC+8)
Publisher: 高雄市:[樹德科技大學經營管理研究所]
Abstract: 布列頓森林體制之崩潰帶動國際貨幣制度變革,大多數國家紛紛改採浮動匯率制度,然而浮動匯率制度之實行易使匯率波動加劇,因此為解決匯率波動過劇之問題,應實施具有蜜月效果之匯率目標區制度。台灣地區國際貿易發達有助於經濟成長,而國際貿易之發展易受匯率波動所左右,因此經濟活動受匯率波動影響甚巨,所幸台灣地區中央銀行(簡稱央行)乃實施具有穩定匯率之匯率目標區制度,然而匯率定價係由各金融機構自行決定,有鑑於匯率政策之實施與執行應具一致性,方能有效促使匯率穩定,故考量匯率政策之實行與匯率水準應具一致性之課題,本文運用敘述性統計方法,進行央行匯率水準與各金融機構匯率水準趨勢之比較,並檢視台灣地區於實施匯率目標區制度之條件下經濟成長情形。研究結果顯示,台灣地區之匯率重整機率為高,且央行為降低投機行為產生,擴大匯率波動區間範圍,符合軟性目標區之特性;此外台灣地區央行與各金融機構之匯率水準趨勢具有相近之分佈形態,然而實施匯率目標區後,台灣地區之經濟成長並非穩定成長。本文之研究結果可做為央行匯率政策訂定及外匯市場參與者做為外匯管理決策之參考。
International monetary system was transformed as the Bretton Woods Agreement was disintegrated, lots of countries switched to adopting flexible exchange rate system. The exchange rates fluctuate violent under the flexible exchange rate system. In order to eliminate the problem of the exchange rate fluctuation should perform the exchange rate target zone system. In Taiwan, a developing international trade is contributive to economic grow, but the exchange rate fluctuation interrupts economic activities greatly. Taiwan Central Bank (CB) practices the exchange rate target zone system for stabilizing the exchange rate. In fact the pricing decision rights of the exchange rates are belongs to the financial institutions. In considering the problem of the consistence between the exchange rate policy practice and decision, this investigation applies the description statistic method to compare the exchange rate that announced by CB and the exchange rate trends that decided by the financial institutions. And examining the condition of economic grow as Taiwan operates the exchange rate target zones system. The researching results are the probability of exchange rate readjustment was large and CB expanded the range of exchange rate fluctuation to avoid adventure trading activities that accordance with the characteristic of the soft target zone, the distribution of exchange rate that raised by CB existed the same tendency as compared with the exchange rate trends which brought from the financial institutions, but the economic grow was unstable as performing the exchange rate target zones policy in Taiwan. The results of this paper would be good references for CB to make exchange rate policies and for the participators to perform exchange management in the exchange rate market.
Appears in Collections:[經營管理研究所] 博碩士論文

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