Since the collapse of Soviet Union in 1989, the cold war between Soviet Union and America had eliminated, the international trade between Taiwan and EU enlarged countries has risen rapidly. In this study, “EU enlarged countries” means those ex-socialism countries which were used to be part of the Soviet Union in the past, and jointed as a EU member state during 1 May 2004. However, due to the difference in social conditions between each nation, they have adopted a different policy in economy reformation. In fact, economy reformation is not merely an economic issue. It comprised of other complicated issues, such as political issues and issues concerning social stabilities. Furthermore, there are problems related to the risk of transaction cost as well as the difference in the stage of economic development in each nation. (e.g. not every nations are in the growing stage). As a result of these situations, it is not possible for each of these nations within the region to bring a positive contribution to the trade growth with Taiwan constantly. For the above reasons, this study aims to examine the major changes of each nations (within the EU enlarged countries) from the beginning of their economy reformation in past to the present. Moreover, this study will provide an anticipation on the trend of international trade between Taiwan and those concern nations. This study is based on merchandise trade data collected from Customs Office of ROC (from January 1995 to July 2005). This study adopted the time series ARIMA model as a research framework. This is to establish an import ARIMA Model, export ARIMA model, in order to prove, anticipate and analyze the international trade between Taiwan and EU enlarged countries. The study result shows that the import and export ARIMA model fits with the theatrical requirements. The result also fount out that Lithuania export, Latvia export, Poland export, Czech import and Czech export have reached accurate standard. While Slovenia export, Hungary import, Lithuania import, Slovakia export, Hungary export, Estonia export, Estonia import, Slovakia import and Slovenia import have reached reasonable standard. Lastly, Poland import and Latvia import are classified as incorrect.
【Keywords】: EU enlarged countries, time series, ARIMA model