| Abstract: | 澎湖是否開放設立觀光賭場，已是眾所矚目的焦點，近幾年全球各地博奕事業方興未艾，舉凡杜拜、澳門、新加坡、南韓……均投入興建與開發賭場之列，冀藉由賭場的多元功能發展觀光事業。中東杜拜政府的投資控股公司「杜拜世界」，宣布投資拉斯維加斯之米高梅賭場集團的新賭場計畫，其購入該集團約百分之九點五的股份，花費超過五十億美元；現實社會中不能賭博之回教世界，居然購入美國賭場集團的股份，其代表意義是阿拉伯聯合大公國亦看好博奕事業的前景發展。事實上博奕事業已成為一個整合觀光、娛樂事業的整合型事業。
中國賭博文化淵源流長，其賭博作為一種社會文化現象，在中國歷史上已流傳數千年，其間經歷種種變遷，從早期的愛國獎券到現今的樂透彩券。綜觀舉凡工商經濟發達之區，亦是賭博盛行之處；為促進離島觀光發展，刺激消費支出，增加就業機會，帶動地域經濟發展，增加中央及地方稅收，觀光賭場開放不得不審慎考量。
爰本研究之目的，為應用灰色預測建構，藉澳門博彩產業經濟效益及博彩業經驗，探討未來澎湖縣設置觀光賭場可能性之研究，究竟澎湖設立觀光賭場會不會帶來觀光人潮、經濟利益及造就地方繁榮，或者只是造福了博奕業者、犧牲治安與文化，並藉由相關文獻與資料探討，期能作為未來發展博弈特區之參考依據，並提供相關單位政府施行之參考。
With the issue of whether to deregulate the launching of tourism casinos in Penghu becoming capturing the attention of all, the rising gaming enterprise worldwide has drawn major cities, such as Dubai, Macao, Singapore, South Korea and others to rush into building and developing casinos in an attempt to develop their tourism enterprise through the casino’s diverse functions. The Middle East Dubai government’s invested holding company, the Dubai World, has announced its plans to invest in the MGM Grand Casino’s new casino plan in Las Vegas by acquiring roughly 9.5% of the group’s shares, with a total spending exceeding US$5 billion; even the Islam world, where gaming is banned in real world, has moved to acquire an American casino group’s shares signifies that the United Arab Emirates is also in favor of the gaming enterprise’s future development. In fact, the gaming enterprise has emerged to become an integrated enterprise that combines the tourism and entertainment enterprises.
With a long history of gaming in China, gaming is more than a social and cultural phenomenon that has been passed down for thousands of years in Chinese history, where it has undergone extensive evolutions to manifest from the earlier days’ patriotic lottery tickets to today’s lottery tickets. As gaming tends to flourish in thriving industrial, commercial and economic metropolises, there is a necessity to stringently evaluate whether to deregulate the launching of tourism casinos in a bid to excel the offshore islands’ tourism development that is poised to stimulate the consumer spending, increase job opportunities, drive the region’s economic development, and add to the central government and local government’s tax revenues.
With that, the study’s objective has been to study and analyze using the gray prediction theory of the gray system theory for forecasting the number of tourism visitors to Penghu, and to compare the findings with some of the common forecasting methods for instilling a gray forecasting model focusing on the number of tourism visitors to Penghu, with which to forecast the demand of tourism visitors to Penghu, and also to compare and analyze the indicators on how Macao’s gaming industry affects the number of its tourism visitors; the study findings show, (1) The average number of tourism visitors to Penghu per year after 2009 is expected to reduce by 2.33% than the previous year; (2) Forecast put the average number of tourism visitors to Macao to grow by 17.44% than the previous year; (3) When compared with a steady growth of Macao’s tourism visitors, and to reflect Penghu’s tourism visitors that are in an ominous declining trend, it is poised to create a significant impact to Penghu County’s declining tourism industry and its population outflow; (4) Relying on revamping the Penghu area through the gaming enterprise to excel its tourism and economic industries has emerged to become an integrated enterprise trend that combines tourism and entertainment enterprises. It is anticipated that the study’s factual validation analysis is able to provide a reference base to government arms and private operators in the decision process for launching tourism casinos in Penghu, and as a reference to subsequent academic studies. |
