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Title: 台灣地區外籍配偶子女國小新生預測模型之發展
Developing a Forecast Model to Predict Numbers of New Primary School Students who have a Foreign Parent
Authors: 李秋利
Chiu-Li Li
Contributors: 經營管理研究所
蔡聰男(Tsung-Nan Tsai)
Keywords: 外籍配偶子女;灰色系統理論;類神經網路;複迴歸分析
Children of a foreign parent;Grey System Theory;Artificial Neural Network (ANN);Multiple-Regression-Analysis
Date: 2012
Issue Date: 2012-12-11 15:36:22 (UTC+8)
Publisher: 高雄市:[樹德科技大學經營管理研究所]
Abstract: 近年來,台灣生育率、出生率屢創新低,少子化的趨勢,已成為熱門討論議題之一。但是,在另一方面,隨著政府宣布解嚴、兩岸開放政策、社會的快速變遷以及全球貿易自由化等因素,加速經濟活動人口的遷移,再加上開放觀光及國際婚姻仲介的推波助瀾之下,台灣地區跨國聯姻比率升高,導致外籍配偶及其子女人數不斷地增加,形成台灣社會人口結構中的新興族群,直接影響到政策、社會、經濟、教育等機制,也成為社會關注的焦點。外籍配偶子女在生活適應、學校教育、文化及族群認同上,遭受到許多困境,若無適切的因應方案,隨著年齡增長進入社會,可能演變成國家社會沈重的負擔。因此,針對外籍配偶子女教育問題與生活輔導,在行政規劃與教育資源分配,是政府有關單位應該重視的問題,每年應編列多少預算,如何有效運用資源,如何擬訂補助與輔導方案,都有賴於準確有效的預測方法。本研究以預測外籍配偶子女國小新生人數,提供精確的預測方法,瞭解外籍配偶子女國小新生人數變動趨勢,提供政府部門在未來政策制定與執行時,能符合外籍配偶子女需求與社會大眾期待。
In recent years, the declining birth rate has raised concerns in Taiwan. However, factors such as the repeal of martial law, Taiwan’s open policy toward China (and vice versa), rapid changes in society, and liberalization of international trade, have increased the speed of movement for the economic activity population. Furthermore, the deregulation of tourism and international marriage brokers have led to an increase in marriages with foreign spouses and children of mixed descent. All aforementioned factors have contributed to the creation of a new group within Taiwan’s population, thus affecting government policies as well as social, economic, and educational systems in Taiwan and becoming a point of focus in society. Children of marriages including a foreign parent have faced many challenges in adaptation to a new life, education, and cultural and ethnic identity; therefore, appropriate coping or response programs are critical in preventing such children from becoming burdens to society as they progress in age and enter society. Relevant bureaus of the government should place due emphasis on the potential problems of education and life counseling for children of a foreign parent from the perspectives of administrative planning and distribution of educational resources. An accurate and effective forecasting model should be created for arranging annual budgets, effectively employing resources, and planning stipends and counseling. Based on predicting the number of newly enrolling primary school students who are children of a foreign parent, this study proposes a precise forecasting method, leading to greater comprehension of changing trends in student numbers. Thus, the proposed method can assist the government in designing and implementing policies based on the demands of the children of a foreign parent group and expectations from society.
The author used Grey System Theory, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach, and multiple regression analysis as research methods, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) and traditional statistics were adopted for forecasting. Because of a lack of official statistical data for children of a foreign parent and a shortage of relevant literature, choosing variables for this research was especially difficult. The author finalized the research variables by collecting and analyzing data from multiple sources, and then used the three aforementioned forecasting models to compare and analyze the test results and extract the best forecasting model for the changes and trends of enrollment of the targeted group. The result of this study enables administrative and education departments to design policies for children of a foreign parent.
Appears in Collections:[經營管理研究所] 博碩士論文

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